Skip to main content

Decision Intelligence for Irreversible Capital

Large, irreversible capital decisions cannot be delegated to narrative, inertia, or optimism.
CREI works with boards and CFOs to pressure-test high-stakes capital allocations until the decision becomes defensible — whether the answer is yes or no.

CREI is a private decision intelligence firm.

We work with organizations that commit substantial capital under uncertainty.

Our role is to make consequences visible before capital becomes irreversible.

We do not advise.

We do not recommend.

We do not compel action.

We clarify what is true — and what it would take for it to remain true.

The Structural Problem

Most large capital decisions are made inside fragmented systems.

  • Financial projections operate in isolation.
  • Operational reality is approximated.
  • Assumptions are implicit, negotiated, or political.
  • Risk is discounted into narrative.
  • Reversibility is overestimated.

As a result, boards and executives approve (or decline) capital without a transparent understanding of:

  • what futures are being priced into the decision
  • where assumptions diverge from behavior
  • how small variances compound into material value leakage
  • whether the decision is defensible under governance scrutiny

CREI exists to resolve this structural blind spot.

What CREI Does

Each engagement centers on one capital decision.

For that decision, CREI constructs a clean decision environment:

  • Unifies assumptions, logic, and financials
  • Surfaces divergence between narrative and operational reality
  • Quantifies compounding effects and fragility
  • Models reversibility and constraint windows
  • Frames options as decisions, not outcomes

The objective is not prediction.
It is defensibility.

When CREI Is Engaged

CREI is typically engaged when capital is still optional, but consequences are already forming:

  • mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, and joint ventures
  • restructuring, capital preservation, and cost resets
  • capacity, footprint, and expansion programs
  • geographic or market entry decisions
  • large programs with irreversible sequencing

These are decisions where reversibility is limited and governance scrutiny is high.

How CREI Operates

CREI does not displace management.

We operate adjacent to the CFO, CEO, and board — strengthening the decision without changing the org chart.

Work is discreet, analytical, and selective.

All engagements are confidential.

Decision Structures

CREI engagements are structured for depth, not throughput.

Decision Intelligence Baseline

A focused engagement centered on a completed decision.
Objective: institutional learning without re-litigation.

Decision Partnership (Annual)

Reserved for organizations making multiple irreversible capital decisions per year.
Objective: compound decision quality across cycles.

Incremental Decision Work

Additional decisions may be added within an active partnership.

CREI manages capacity deliberately.

Not all organizations are accepted.

The Role of Expertise

Human expertise strengthens model integrity — not judgement.

Practitioners contribute by:

  • refining assumptions
  • stress-testing logic
  • challenging narratives
  • improving structural accuracy

CREI does not substitute for board or management decisions. We ensure the environment in which decisions are made is defensible.

Who CREI is for

CREI is engaged by organizations facing decisions that are:

  • capital-intensive
  • irreversible or path-dependent
  • board-visible and governance-sensitive
  • poorly served by episodic analysis or static models
  • exposed to narrative or incentive distortion

Counterparts typically include:

  • CFOs & finance leadership
  • Chief Strategy Officers
  • Corporate boards & committees
  • Capital allocation principals

What CREI Is Not

For clarity and governance alignment:

  • CREI is not a consulting firm
  • CREI is not an investment adviser
  • CREI is not a fiduciary
  • CREI does not recommend actions
  • CREI does not act as management
  • CREI does not validate narratives or forecasts

Discretion

CREI operates with institutional confidentiality. We do not publish references, case studies, or testimonials. The work is evaluated privately — where capital decisions are actually made. Engagements are selective and capacity is limited. Initial conversations are exploratory and non-commercial.
Requests are reviewed carefully.